Chicago Bears 2024 NFL Draft Preview

Good morning Chicago fans! Welcome to the first official Special Edition of Windy Conditions. The NFL Draft is tonight, and I am beyond excited!! Drafts change franchises, and this one is weighty for the Bears.

I wanted to do a deep dive for all of you before the Bears are officially on the clock with the 1st overall pick.

And don’t worry, the regular weekly editions will continue like normal!

Current Draft Picks

Round 1, Pick 1 (From Panthers - 2023 #1 Overall Pick trade back)

Round 1, Pick 9

Round 3, Pick 75

Round 4, Pick 122 (From Eagles - 2023 #9 Overall Pick trade back)

Ryan Poles stated that he is fine with only taking 4 players. I would be shocked if they stuck with 4 picks.

Why do they only have four draft picks?

Round 2, Pick 40 - Traded to the Commanders in October 2023 for DE Montez Sweat

Round 4, Pick 110 - Traded to the Chargers in March 2024 for WR Keenan Allen

Round 5, Pick 144 - Traded to the Bills in March 2024 for C/G Ryan Bates

Round 6, Pick 184 - Traded to the Dolphins in August 2023 for C/G Dan Feeney

Round 7, Pick 231 - Traded to the Patriots in July 2022 for WR N’Keal Harry

State of the Team Pre-Draft

The Bears are on an upward trajectory.

I’ve said that before, and I’ve believed it wholeheartedly many times in the past.

Past Optimism

The 2006 team had a historically elite defense and came up short in the Super Bowl. That had to be the start of a long window of contention, right? More like 7-9 and 9-7 until the 2010 team finally made it back to the NFC Championship game with Jay Cutler at the helm. And I can still picture Cutler on the stationary bike on the sideline as Caleb Hanie came into the game for one last ditch effort…

The 2018 team also had a historically elite defense. Ryan Pace was hired in 2015 and quietly added significant talent to a barren roster left by Phil Emery who wanted to try to win every game 55-50 if possible. Even after the double doink and an early playoff exit, the offseason leading into the 2019 season was as celebrated as any other time I can remember in my lifetime.

Summer 2019 gave us the Bears 100 celebration - with a spotlight on Mitch Trubisky with a Jim McMahon-inspired headband. The swag was evident on the team, and the city was on fire. An elite defense, an improving young quarterback, and an offensive guru for a head coach. What could go wrong? Well, pretty much everything. A couple more seasons of mediocrity with quarterback controversies and an offensive-minded head coach who couldn’t produce any touchdowns.

The Ryan Poles Era

Ryan Poles was hired in January 2022.

He inherited an aging defense, an offense with no playmakers, and a salary cap ledger that seemingly had dead money on the books for the next 100 years.

Two years later, and the Bears are ready to compete. I’ll hold off on all the turmoil that has still taken place at Halas Hall over the last two years until another time, but roster-wise, they are in a good spot.

DJ Moore and Keenan Allen are elite wide receivers. Darnell Wright could be a star right tackle. The defensive backfield might be the best in the entire league. Montez Sweat and Jaylon Johnson are legitimate stars, and Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards are a vastly underrated linebacker duo.

The defense was lights out to end the 2023 season, and the foundation of a winning program seems to be in place. Matt Eberflus has been criticized, and the question has always been whether the players would buy in. I think we can confidently say that the locker room loves playing for Flus, and this new Bears culture is here to stay. The offense in 2023…well, that’s where this draft comes into play.

This FEELS different. The philosophy of building through the draft has been kept. The future hasn’t been mortgaged for aging veterans. The roster is full of athletes who play hard on every snap. And it is all set up for a new QB.

The Quarterback

With the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, the Chicago Bears select…

Caleb Williams, Quarterback, USC

This choice is inevitable.

After months of debate and punches thrown amongst Bears fans, the Justin Fields (plus draft picks) vs. Caleb Williams sides stopped their war when the Bears dealt Fields to the Steelers on March 16th.

To be honest, I was dead set in the middle.

Justin Fields

I had hope for Fields. He improved last season. He started making plays with his arm when outside the pocket, he greatly reduced the number of sacks he took, and he had a couple huge games (vs. Washington and Atlanta) that showed he can command an offense.

His teammates publicly declared their love for him more than anyone could expect from the typical surface level support everyone gives each other in the media. The team rallied around him, embraced him as their leader, and followed his work ethic and poise in the locker room.

But two and a half seasons of…bad football? You can blame the coaching staff and supporting cast all you want, but a quarterback who doesn’t get it yet and doesn’t elevate their teammates is probably just not a good quarterback. We’ve seen bad quarterback play in Chicago. It’s rarely average. It’s BAD.

Fields was 22nd in EPA/play in 2023. He was 29th in completion percentage, threw for 2,562 yards and 16 TDs in 13 games, and took 44 sacks.

We can trust in potential all we want, but potential does not guarantee a complete turnaround. It was time for a change, and fortunately, Ryan Poles landed the #1 draft pick in possibly the best trade in franchise history.

New Quarterbacks and New Phases of Life

We are scarred in this city. Unintimidating quarterback play has marred the franchise for their entire history. I turn 30 this year, and each era of quarterbacks is ingrained in my mind.

The two most recent first round picks were very unique situations:

In 2017, the Bears had the #3 pick. It was Ryan Pace’s third draft since becoming GM, and there were no elite quarterback prospects. A high pick was a prime opportunity to add to a young roster that could eventually be ready for the next great quarterback.

S Jamal Adams was a popular choice among fans. DL Solomon Thomas was another solid option. The defense was about to get a huge lift.

I was sitting on the couch, 10 months after getting married and getting our own apartment. Just starting a new phase of life. And of course, fully in the trenches on who the Bears might select on draft night.

I was confused when they traded up to #2. They must absolutely love someone and not want to miss out. That was fine with me, but jumping up one spot that high in the draft did seem odd.

Then Mitchell Trubisky’s name was called, and I was shocked. There was NO smoke connecting the Bears and Trubisky. There was no expectation they would choose a quarterback, especially when most draft experts rated all of the quarterbacks as 2nd round talents or worse.

I was texting a friend and genuinely asked if the Bears would trade Trubisky later that night. They must have picked him as trade bait to gain…something…in return. But no, they thought they had their franchise quarterback.

Fast forward to 2021, and the Bears had moved on from Trubisky after the 2020 season. They signed Andy Dalton a month before the draft to seemingly battle Nick Foles for the job. Dalton had experience with the offensive coordinator, Bill Lazor, and the Bears social media team put out the famous “QB1” tweet shortly after he signed.

I settled in for another draft, this time laying in bed just one month after buying our first house and moving. Coincidentally, it was another new phase of life. But with Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy orchestrating two disappointing seasons in 2019 and 2020, and only one surefire quarterback prospect on the board (Trevor Lawrence), I did not think that night would start another era of Bears football.

Justin Fields, who was considered 1B to Trevor Lawrence as a prospect since high school, was the 2nd most talented quarterback in the draft class. So many teams were QB-needy, and the rankings were all over the place going into the night.

The Bears sat at #11, and I didn’t know what to expect. Maybe an offensive lineman would be most beneficial. At that point, I had thrown in the towel on the Pace regime, so I wasn’t too confident in any of their choices.

Pretty quickly, the top 10 took a bunch of turns. The Jets stuck at #2 and shocked the world by taking BYU’s Zach Wilson. Apparently the one throw on the run from his Pro Day was fairly convincing. The 49ers, who had traded a haul to get to #3, chose Trey Lance, who played at an FCS school and only played a single game in the 2020 season due to COVID-19 shutdowns. The Panthers and Broncos opted for CBs instead of QBs.

In the back of my head, I wanted the Bears to trade up for Fields, but I didn’t think they could pull it off. They weren’t getting a quarterback. And they had already traded away so many draft picks in the last few years.

When #11 came around, the trade was announced, and the Bears had moved up. Carlos Nelson, the guest announcer for the selection, went to the microphone and started: “Boy, how exciting is this.” I was PUMPED. Fields was a proven quarterback in college. He produced. He played in big games. He toughed out injuries. He could run a 4.4 40. This was far and away the best QB prospect the Bears had ever selected. And we know what happened next…

Caleb Williams

All roads have led to Caleb Williams. When I turn on the draft tonight, 8 months to the day after my daughter was born, the Bears will enter a new era. Again. A new phase in my life aligned with another quarterback.

I had doubts about moving on from Fields. When Poles traded Fields, I wanted to know if he was high on multiple quarterbacks in this draft class, or if Caleb Williams was his sole target. After the last month of reporting, it is extremely clear that Williams is the guy. This franchise, this regime, this city is placing their hope on another 22-year old prospect. And we have to hope this ends differently.

Following Williams’ 2022 season at USC, which included a Heisman Trophy and an 11-3 record, he was labeled as generational. He was returning to school for one more season, but once he entered the draft, he would be the best quarterback to go pro since Andrew Luck in 2012. Or so they said.

His 2023 season was rockier. USC’s defense was atrocious, and his supporting cast on offense was weaker. He was in survival mode most of the time, trying to make anything happen to keep his team in the game. I kept one ear open all season just in case Justin Fields didn’t progress. Soon enough, Caleb Williams was moved down draft boards.

They said he holds the ball too long. He fumbles a lot. He isn’t emotionally stable. He plays hero ball and rarely plays within the structure of the offense. He can’t lead a team.

Although some media members, namely Dan Orlovsky and Louis Riddick among others, have Jayden Daniels ranked #1 in this draft, the narrative has shifted back to where it started. Williams is way more talented than everyone else. He plays on time when possible, but his team was a mess. He can make every throw on the field using every arm angle imaginable. This is the guy you can’t miss.

After watching Williams on the Pivot Podcast, I am officially sold. This is my quarterback.

Yes, its possible he’s a bust. No, interviews and highlights and projections don’t matter. It’s all about winning at the NFL level.

But Williams is the guy we should all be excited about to lead the Bears.

His goals are listed on the lock screen of his phone. One of which is 8 Super Bowl rings (one better than Tom Brady). He said he wants to play in one place for 20 years. He loves ball, is obsessed with winning, and seems mature beyond his years. He clearly loves his teammates and puts the team first.

I thought Justin Fields was a new level of prospect that the Bears had never acquired. Caleb Williams is at ANOTHER level.

Pick 9

The draft will begin after Caleb Williams’ name gets called. Rumors are swirling, and the first round may get crazy. QBs Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and JJ McCarthy may go 1-2-3-4. There may be multiple trades in the Top 10. Who will be left on the board at #9 is a giant question mark, but the Bears should have plenty of intriguing options.

Team Needs

Excluding QB, I see these positions as the Bears’ biggest needs:

1. Defensive End

2. Defensive Tackle

3. Interior Offensive Lineman (G/C)

4. Offensive Tackle

5. Wide Receiver

Build through the trenches? I see why they say that.

“Premium Positions”

Ryan Poles has openly stated they are looking at OT, DE, DT, or WR with pick #9. I don’t remember a team ever declaring which positions they wanted to draft with a specific selection, so I was surprised to hear him be so forthright. It makes sense, though. Those positions are essential for success and cost top dollar or draft capital to acquire. The Bears also happen to have roster holes in those spots.

Let’s dive into each position and the case for selecting one at #9:

Offensive Tackle

Current Roster:

LT - Braxton Jones

RT - Darnell Wright

Depth - Larry Borom, Jake Curhan, Matt Pryor, Aviante Collins

Darnell Wright was the Bears’ 1st round selection in 2023 and had a promising rookie year. He gave up occasional sacks, but the typical rookie bumps did not dissuade many that he can be a star in this league.

Braxton Jones was a 5th round pick in 2022 and played every single snap in his rookie season. While he was obviously a great find by Ryan Poles in the 5th round, there are doubts about his ceiling and if the team can or should trust him with the left tackle spot in the future. Especially when they are bringing in their prized quarterback.

If the Bears take a tackle at #9, they must believe they are a significant upgrade over Jones. I’m personally intrigued by the idea of two consecutive 1st round tackles becoming elite and protecting Caleb Williams for the next decade.

Plus, Braxton Jones as a swing tackle would be quite a luxury.

Possible Targets:

• JC Latham - Alabama

• Olu Fashanu - Penn State

• Taliese Fuaga - Oregon State

• Troy Fautanu - Washington

Defensive End

Current Roster:

Starters - Montez Sweat, DeMarcus Walker

Depth - Dominique Robinson, Jacob Martin

Montez Sweat is a superstar. After sending a 2nd round pick for Sweat at the trade deadline, Poles was quickly justified by Sweat’s presence on the D-Line and the entire defense’s response to his addition. Sweat pressured opposing quarterbacks at an impressive rate to close the season, and the defense ended up dominating most games.

DeMarcus Walker was a solid addition in 2023 free agency. He rotates inside and outside and plays with a high motor. I think the team would be OK with him as a starter at end, but he would be an ideal fit as a rotational lineman with versatility who can play whenever needed.

The depth is VERY thin at this position. Robinson has been a healthy inactive numerous times, and Martin is a new addition to the team who only had 2 sacks last season with the Colts in mainly a special teams role.

Offensive players will go high in this draft, so if the Bears take a DE at #9, they may get the best available defensive player in the entire class. But they have to believe they are more valuable than the offensive players left on the board.

Pairing a promising rookie on a cheap 4-year deal with Montez Sweat would really solidify the defense moving forward.

Possible Targets:

• Jared Verse - Florida State

• Laiatu Latu - UCLA

• Dallas Turner - Alabama

Defensive Tackle

Current Roster

Starters - Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings

Depth - Zacch Pickens, Byron Cowart

Gervon Dexter was a 2nd round pick in 2023 and showed flashes as his rookie season progressed. I’ve heard some who are adamant he is a 1-technique and others who believe he will ascend into a star 3-technique. Whatever the case, the jury is out. I think the Bears are hopeful for his future, but he needs to prove he can produce at a high level.

Andrew Billings was a great free agent signing in 2023 and already signed a 2-year extension. Billings is a prototypical 1-technique run stuffer who clogs up running lanes. Whoever the solution is at 3-tech will have a great partner next to them in Billings.

If the Bears take a DT at #9, they must not be sold on Dexter’s future at 3-tech. I know you need 4+ guys inside and 4+ guys outside to get consistent playing time and produce in order to have an elite line, but a star 3-tech is the “engine” of a Matt Eberflus defense. As much as that phrase has been overused, it is still true. If Dexter isn’t that guy, using a high pick in the draft to shore up the trenches would be smart.

Possible Target:

Byron Murphy - Texas

Wide Receiver

Current Roster:

Starters - DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Tyler Scott

Depth - Dante Pettis, Velus Jones Jr., Collin Johnson

The Bears already have their best wide receiver duo in franchise history.

Moore and Allen have 17,095 combined receiving yards in their careers. Moore had 96 catches for 1,364 yards in 2023 with 13 games of Justin Fields at QB and a lackluster offensive unit. Allen is highly regarded as the best route-runner in the league and is entering his 12th season in the league as a top WR.

So why take a receiver? Allen’s current contract has one year remaining. Poles and Allen have stated their interest in keeping Allen here longer, but nothing is imminent. With his injury history, age, and the unknown of how he will perform in Chicago, this could turn into a one-year rental. I’m not convinced he will be gone after one year, but we have to at least consider the possibility.

Moore has two years remaining on his contract at a ridiculously affordable $16M/year. After that, he will need a serious pay increase.

Tyler Scott was an exciting prospect taken in the 4th round in 2023, but his rookie season was disappointing. He could still develop into a good receiver. He’ll have even more teachers at his disposal this season. But the Bears may not be convinced that Scott is a good enough WR3. Or WR2 of the future.

If the Bears take a WR at #9, they basically want to break the NFL and have the best receiving core in the entire league. In the history of the league? I’m not sure. Depends how good their selection ends up being. But locking up an elite talent on a rookie contract to match timelines with Caleb Williams would be amazing for an offense that has to keep up with the pass-first NFL landscape.

Possible Targets:

• Rome Odunze - Washington

• Malik Nabers - LSU

The Caleb Williams Effect

Will Caleb Williams have any influence on the other Bears draft picks?

I am anxiously awaiting the story to break once the draft is complete that Williams recommended a certain guy to the front office.

Ryan Poles watched college tape with Justin Fields to determine which wide receiver to take in 2022. Maybe that was a mistake since Velus Jones Jr. was the fruit of that exercise.

CJ Stroud asked the Texans to draft WR Tank Dell in the 3rd round in 2023 after throwing passes to Dell at the NFL Combine.

As strange as it sounds, quarterbacks are so important to these franchises that they can even have a voice on draft night.

If Caleb Williams shoots any texts to Ryan Poles tonight, I’m wondering if it will be about:

• OT Olu Fashanu - High school teammates

• WR Rome Odunze - Recent throwing session together, Williams has publicly stated he is a big fan

• WRs Brenden Rice & Tahj Washington (Later Rounds) - USC teammates

• S Calen Bullock (Later Rounds) - USC teammates

Realistically, anyone Williams has crossed paths with could be in play.

Predictions

The experts are always wrong, so there’s a slim to none chance this ends up being right. But I have to put something out there!

• Move down from #9, select OT (Fashanu or Fuaga)

• Make a selection in the 2nd round (obtained either from the 1st round trade back OR by trading 2025 draft capital)

• Draft a WR

BOLD Predictions

These aren’t necessarily realistic. But draft night means chaos!

• Draft 2 offensive linemen

• Trade down at least once AND trade up at least once

• ONLY select offensive players

• Draft a CB (4th in 3 drafts for Ryan Poles)

Let The Show Begin

It’s time for me to sign off. I didn’t expect to have that much to say before the draft, but I appreciate you experiencing this day with me.

Tonight is the start of a new era of Bears football. Championship football.

If you enjoyed this long-form edition, forward it to a friend!

Enjoy the draft, and Bear Down!